Google Finance offers an exceptional advantage to potential investors in the United States by tracking domestic trends across all the major sectors of the U.S. economy. There is a wealth of analytical information available at Google Domestic Trends, which is a part of Google Finance. The principle that works behind it is that Google search traffic is a key indicator of the sectors that may be revealing a higher or lower interest from potential consumers.
Reliability of Google Domestic Trends Index
Considering the extensive usage of Google search engine, by some standards, it is by far the most reliable measure to estimate future demand trends in the local economy. At present Google computes the indexes only for U.S. search traffic. The indexes measure the specific search query volume compared to the aggregate searches on Google. Therefore, if a particular index is declining, it does not necessarily mean that the absolute number of searches is declining. In absolute terms, the searches may be on the rise, but at a lower rate than the aggregate search volume.
For example, Google Retail index tracks U.S. search volumes on Google.com for the retail trade category. Sample keyword searches may be “retail sales, retail bags”. To analyze the retail trends in the U.S. market, Google uses the index value, which is a 30-day moving average on the 15th of the month. Therefore, in order to predict the retail sales of January 2011, Google will use the index value as on 15th January, 2011. In Google’s observation, with this index the Mean Absolute Error improves from 6.52 percent to 3.65 percent. This may not appear significant, but in fact, it is an improvement of 44 percent in the accuracy of the prediction.
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